Covered Treasury Rate
US 10-Year Treasury Note
Treasury Note · 10 years
Current yield4.699%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^TNX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 10-Year Treasury Note technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 57, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 4.541%. A break below 4.372% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 4.745%. A confirmed break above 4.745% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +14.6%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -8.9%, from a high-water mark of 4.341% to 3.953%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 10-Year Treasury yield is currently observed at 4.66%, reflecting a slight daily decline of 1.0 basis point.
- The yield has retreated 8.5 basis points over the past week, though it remains elevated by 9.1 basis points on a monthly basis.
- Year-to-date, the 10-Year yield has risen by 49.7 basis points, indicating a persistent upward trend in long-term borrowing costs despite recent short-term volatility.
What changed
- The 10-Year yield experienced a minor daily contraction of 1.0 basis point, interrupting the broader monthly upward trajectory.
- The weekly decline of 8.5 basis points suggests a temporary consolidation in bond pricing following the more significant monthly increase of 9.1 basis points.
- The cumulative year-to-date increase of 49.7 basis points establishes a context of sustained yield expansion compared to the start of the year.
Why it matters
- The 10-Year Treasury yield serves as a critical benchmark for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, meaning the 49.7 basis point YTD increase directly raises the cost of capital for consumers and businesses.
- A yield level of 4.66% continues to exert pressure on equity valuations, as higher risk-free rates increase the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings.
- The recent weekly decline of 8.5 basis points may indicate a brief respite in market pricing for duration risk, though the broader trend remains skewed toward higher yields.
Bullish rate drivers
- The recent weekly decline of 8.5 basis points indicates a potential short-term bid for Treasuries, which exerts downward pressure on yields.
- The daily decrease of 1.0 basis point suggests that market participants may be finding value at current yield levels, potentially capping further immediate upside.
Bearish rate drivers
- The year-to-date increase of 49.7 basis points demonstrates a strong, persistent trend of rising yields that has not yet been fully reversed.
- The monthly increase of 9.1 basis points highlights that despite recent weekly fluctuations, the medium-term momentum remains biased toward higher interest rates.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve policy decisions and communications remain the primary drivers for long-term rate expectations.
- Upcoming US Treasury auctions and issuance schedules will influence supply-demand dynamics and yield levels.
- Official releases regarding inflation, employment, and economic growth will serve as the fundamental inputs for adjusting yield expectations.
Key risks
- Persistent inflationary pressures could force the Federal Reserve to maintain higher rates for longer, potentially pushing the 10-Year yield above current levels.
- Unexpected shifts in Treasury issuance volume could disrupt market liquidity and cause volatility in yield pricing.
- Economic data releases that deviate significantly from expectations may trigger rapid repricing of the 10-Year note.
Upcoming events
- Federal Reserve policy decisions and communications are monitored as primary events.
- US Treasury auctions and issuance announcements are tracked for their impact on supply.
- Official economic releases concerning inflation, employment, and growth are scheduled for monitoring.
Latest verified updates
- The 10-Year Treasury yield was last updated on 2026-08-07 at 4.66%.
- Market data is sourced from Yahoo Finance, which provides a delayed observation of the 10-Year Treasury note yield.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-08-10