Covered Treasury Rate
US 10-Year Treasury Note
Treasury Note · 10 years
Current yield5.162%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^TNX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 10-Year Treasury Note technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 78, a extended reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 4.664%. A break below 4.418% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 5.162%. A confirmed break above 5.162% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +14.7%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -7.8%, from a high-water mark of 4.295% to 3.962%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 10-Year Treasury yield is currently observed at 5.16%, reflecting a sustained upward trend in benchmark borrowing costs.
- Market data indicates a daily yield increase of 4.8 basis points, consistent with broader momentum observed over the past week.
- Evidence is limited to reported market pricing; official Federal Reserve policy statements or Treasury auction results for the current period are not included in this dataset.
What changed
- The 10-Year yield has risen by 21.5 basis points over the past week, accelerating a monthly trend that has seen yields climb 52.3 basis points.
- Year-to-date performance shows a significant tightening of financial conditions, with the yield increasing by 99.9 basis points since the start of the year.
- The recent daily move of 4.8 basis points confirms the continuation of the prevailing upward yield trajectory.
Why it matters
- Rising 10-Year yields typically increase the cost of capital for corporate and consumer borrowing, potentially dampening economic activity if sustained.
- For fixed-income investors, the rapid monthly increase of 52.3 basis points represents a significant repricing of duration risk, impacting portfolio valuations.
- The upward trend in the 10-Year benchmark often serves as a proxy for market expectations regarding long-term inflation and neutral interest rate levels.
Bullish rate drivers
- The consistent upward movement in yields suggests market participants may be pricing in higher long-term growth expectations or persistent inflationary pressures.
- A rising yield environment can attract capital inflows from investors seeking higher risk-free returns compared to other global sovereign debt markets.
Bearish rate drivers
- Higher yields increase the debt-servicing burden for the U.S. Treasury, which may eventually constrain fiscal policy flexibility.
- Elevated borrowing costs can exert downward pressure on equity valuations, particularly for growth-oriented sectors sensitive to discount rate changes.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and communications regarding the path of the federal funds rate remain the primary driver for long-term yield adjustments.
- Official U.S. Treasury auction results and issuance volumes will be critical for determining supply-demand dynamics in the secondary market.
- Upcoming official releases on inflation, employment, and economic growth will provide the necessary context to validate or challenge the current yield trend.
Key risks
- A rapid, disorderly increase in yields could lead to heightened volatility across broader financial markets and tightening of credit conditions.
- The current evidence lacks specific data on liquidity conditions or institutional positioning, which could exacerbate price swings during periods of market stress.
Upcoming events
- Market participants are monitoring upcoming Federal Reserve policy communications for guidance on the terminal rate and balance sheet policy.
- Scheduled U.S. Treasury auctions will be monitored for demand metrics, which serve as a gauge for investor appetite for long-duration debt.
Latest verified updates
- The 10-Year Treasury yield was last updated at 5.16% on September 24, 2026, based on reported market data.
- The cumulative yield increase of 99.9 basis points year-to-date highlights a significant shift in the interest rate environment compared to the start of the year.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-09-24