Covered Treasury Rate
US 10-Year Treasury Note
Treasury Note · 10 years
Current yield4.878%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^TNX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 10-Year Treasury Note technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Mixed trend: the latest level is below its 20-period average, without full long-term confirmation.
RSI is 33, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 4.837%. A break below 4.639% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 5.217%. A confirmed break above 5.311% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +29.8%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -27.4%, from a high-water mark of 4.988% to 3.621%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 10-Year Treasury yield is observed at 4.859% as of November 6, 2026, according to reported market data.
- The yield recorded a daily increase of 2.2 basis points, contrasting with a broader downward trend observed over the past month.
- Evidence is limited to reported market data, with no official Federal Reserve or Treasury policy updates available in the current monitoring window.
What changed
- The yield has declined by 41.8 basis points over the past month, marking a significant retracement from recent levels.
- On a weekly basis, the yield has retreated by 7.0 basis points, despite the minor daily uptick.
- Year-to-date, the yield remains elevated by 69.6 basis points, indicating a net increase in borrowing costs compared to the start of the year.
Why it matters
- The 10-year yield serves as a critical benchmark for mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs, directly impacting broader economic activity.
- A sustained decline from the 5% threshold, as noted in market commentary, may signal shifting expectations for long-term inflation or growth.
- The divergence between the year-to-date increase and the recent monthly decline highlights ongoing volatility in duration-sensitive assets.
Bullish rate drivers
- The daily increase of 2.2 basis points suggests a temporary pause in the recent downward momentum of yields.
- The year-to-date increase of 69.6 basis points confirms that the broader trend for 2026 remains higher than the start of the year.
- Market participants continue to monitor the 5% yield level as a significant psychological and technical threshold.
Bearish rate drivers
- The monthly decline of 41.8 basis points indicates a cooling in yield pressure over the last four weeks.
- Weekly data shows a 7.0 basis point reduction, suggesting that the recent downward trend is persisting despite daily fluctuations.
- Market commentary suggests that the 5% yield level may have marked a peak for the current cycle, potentially reducing upward pressure on rates.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve policy decisions and communications remain the primary drivers for long-term rate expectations.
- Official US Treasury auction results and issuance volumes will dictate supply-side dynamics for the 10-year note.
- Official economic releases regarding inflation, employment, and growth will influence market sentiment regarding the trajectory of interest rates.
Key risks
- Unanticipated shifts in Federal Reserve policy could reverse the recent monthly decline in yields.
- Changes in Treasury issuance patterns may impact liquidity and pricing for the 10-year benchmark.
- Market sentiment, as reflected in unverified social signals, may diverge from official economic data, creating volatility.
Upcoming events
- Market participants are monitoring for official Federal Reserve policy decisions and communications.
- Scheduled US Treasury auctions and issuance announcements will be tracked for supply impact.
- Official releases of inflation, employment, and growth data are pending and will serve as key inputs for rate forecasting.
Latest verified updates
- Reported data as of November 6, 2026, places the US 10-Year Treasury yield at 4.859%.
- MarketWatch confirms the current yield status for the 10-year note alongside other Treasury maturities.
- Social signals from November 2, 2026, indicate market participants are actively debating the significance of the 5% yield threshold.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-11-09