Covered Treasury Rate
US 13-Week Treasury Bill
Treasury Bill · 13 weeks
Current yield3.718%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^IRX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 13-Week Treasury Bill technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 48, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 3.658%. A break below 3.557% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 3.805%. A confirmed break above 3.805% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +7.7%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -15.5%, from a high-water mark of 4.150% to 3.507%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 13-Week Treasury Bill yield is currently observed at 3.71%, reflecting a short-term risk-free rate benchmark.
- Evidence is limited to market-reported data from Yahoo Finance; official Treasury yield curve data for this specific date has not yet been integrated into the current evidence packet.
What changed
- The yield experienced a daily decline of 2.2 basis points, contrasting with a weekly increase of 2.8 basis points.
- Year-to-date, the 13-week yield has risen by 16.3 basis points, indicating a slight upward drift in short-term funding costs over the broader period.
- The monthly change shows a marginal contraction of 1.3 basis points, suggesting recent consolidation following the YTD ascent.
Why it matters
- As a primary proxy for the Federal Reserve's policy rate, the 13-week T-Bill yield serves as a critical transmission mechanism for money market liquidity and short-term corporate financing costs.
- Fluctuations in this yield directly impact the opportunity cost of holding cash versus risk assets, influencing short-duration portfolio allocations.
- The divergence between daily and weekly trends suggests heightened sensitivity to immediate market flows rather than a sustained shift in interest rate expectations.
Bullish rate drivers
- A weekly increase of 2.8 basis points suggests persistent demand for higher yields in the short end of the curve, potentially reflecting market expectations of 'higher for longer' policy rates.
- The positive YTD change of 16.3 basis points indicates a structural trend of rising short-term rates compared to the start of the year.
Bearish rate drivers
- The daily decline of 2.2 basis points indicates immediate buying pressure or a flight to safety that temporarily suppresses yields.
- The monthly contraction of 1.3 basis points suggests that the upward momentum observed YTD may be encountering resistance or profit-taking.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve policy communications regarding the target federal funds rate range will be the primary driver of 13-week T-Bill pricing.
- Upcoming US Treasury auction schedules and issuance volumes will influence supply-demand dynamics in the short-term bill market.
Key risks
- Unexpected shifts in liquidity conditions or money market fund flows could cause volatility in T-Bill yields independent of Fed policy.
- Changes in the Treasury's cash management strategy or debt ceiling discussions, if applicable, represent exogenous risks to bill supply and pricing.
Upcoming events
- Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and subsequent press conferences are monitored as the primary event risk for short-term rates.
- Official US Treasury auction announcements and settlement data remain the key scheduled events for supply-side updates.
Latest verified updates
- The yield data was last updated on 2026-08-07 via reported market data.
- No official Federal Reserve or Treasury policy updates have been processed in the current evidence window to explain the daily 2.2 bps move.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-08-10