Covered Treasury Rate
US 13-Week Treasury Bill
Treasury Bill · 13 weeks
Current yield4.030%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^IRX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 13-Week Treasury Bill technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Mixed trend: the latest level is below its 20-period average, without full long-term confirmation.
RSI is 42, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 3.973%. A break below 3.973% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 4.088%. A confirmed break above 4.088% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +9.1%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -2.8%, from a high-water mark of 4.088% to 3.973%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The 13-week Treasury bill yield is observed at 4.0% as of November 6, 2026, according to reported market data.
- Short-term yield dynamics show a modest upward trend in the immediate term, contrasting with a broader monthly decline.
- The yield remains significantly higher on a year-to-date basis, reflecting a net increase of 45.3 basis points since the start of the year.
What changed
- The 13-week yield increased by 1.3 basis points over the most recent daily observation period.
- On a weekly basis, the yield has expanded by 2.7 basis points, indicating a reversal of the downward pressure observed over the past month.
- Despite recent daily and weekly gains, the yield remains 3.7 basis points lower than the levels recorded one month ago.
Why it matters
- The 13-week T-bill serves as a critical benchmark for short-term cash management and risk-free rate expectations in the financial system.
- Rising yields in the ultra-short end of the curve increase the cost of capital for cash-equivalent holdings and money market funds.
- The net year-to-date increase of 45.3 basis points suggests a persistent tightening environment relative to the beginning of the year.
Bullish rate drivers
- Continued demand for higher short-term yields amid sustained inflationary pressures could push the 13-week rate upward.
- Increased Treasury issuance to fund government operations may require higher yields to attract sufficient investor participation.
- Market expectations for a 'higher for longer' interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve would support elevated short-term yields.
Bearish rate drivers
- A shift in monetary policy toward easing would likely exert downward pressure on the 13-week bill yield.
- Increased demand for safe-haven assets during periods of market volatility often drives T-bill prices up and yields down.
- The monthly decline of 3.7 basis points indicates that short-term yield compression remains a possibility if economic growth slows.
Key catalysts
- Official Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding the federal funds rate target range.
- Scheduled U.S. Treasury auctions for short-term bills, which dictate supply dynamics.
- Official economic releases concerning inflation and employment data that influence interest rate expectations.
Key risks
- Unexpected shifts in liquidity conditions within the money markets could cause volatility in T-bill pricing.
- Fiscal policy developments that alter the Treasury's borrowing requirements could impact supply-demand balances.
- Changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction strategy could affect the availability of short-term paper.
Upcoming events
- Future Federal Reserve monetary policy meetings and communications.
- Scheduled U.S. Treasury bill auctions as published by the Treasury Department.
- Upcoming official releases of inflation and labor market data.
Latest verified updates
- The 13-week Treasury bill yield was last updated at 4.0% on November 6, 2026, per reported market data.
- Year-to-date performance shows a cumulative yield increase of 45.3 basis points.
- The asset has experienced a weekly yield increase of 2.7 basis points, contrasting with a monthly decline of 3.7 basis points.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-11-09