Covered Treasury Rate
US 5-Year Treasury Note
Treasury Note · 5 years
Current yield4.405%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^FVX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 5-Year Treasury Note technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 53, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 4.255%. A break below 4.121% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 4.461%. A confirmed break above 4.461% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +17.6%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -9.0%, from a high-water mark of 3.858% to 3.512%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 5-Year Treasury yield is currently observed at 4.362%, reflecting a slight downward adjustment in the most recent trading session.
- Evidence is limited to market price data; no specific macroeconomic releases or central bank communications were provided in this packet to explain the move.
What changed
- The 5-Year yield declined by 2.7 basis points on a daily basis and 9.8 basis points over the past week.
- Despite the recent weekly decline, the yield remains 5.4 basis points higher on a monthly basis and 64.0 basis points higher year-to-date, indicating a broader upward trend in 2026.
Why it matters
- The 5-Year Treasury note serves as a critical benchmark for intermediate-term corporate borrowing costs and consumer loans, such as auto financing.
- A decline in yields suggests a potential easing of market-implied interest rate expectations or a flight to safety, though the lack of accompanying economic data prevents definitive attribution.
- The divergence between the recent weekly decline and the significant year-to-date increase highlights ongoing volatility in the intermediate segment of the yield curve.
Bullish rate drivers
- The recent weekly decline of 9.8 basis points suggests a temporary moderation in selling pressure on intermediate-duration debt.
- If the weekly trend persists, it may indicate a market reassessment of the terminal rate or a softening in growth expectations.
Bearish rate drivers
- The year-to-date increase of 64.0 basis points remains the dominant trend, signaling sustained upward pressure on yields throughout 2026.
- The monthly increase of 5.4 basis points suggests that the recent weekly dip has not yet reversed the broader monthly tightening of financial conditions.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve policy communications regarding the path of the federal funds rate will be the primary driver for intermediate yield direction.
- Upcoming US Treasury auctions for intermediate-term notes will influence supply-demand dynamics and yield levels.
Key risks
- Unexpected shifts in official inflation or employment data could rapidly reverse the recent downward trend in yields.
- Changes in Treasury issuance schedules or demand at auctions could lead to volatility in the 5-year segment.
Upcoming events
- Market participants are awaiting official Federal Reserve policy decisions and communications for guidance on the interest rate trajectory.
- Official US Treasury auctions and issuance schedules remain key monitorable events for supply-side impacts.
Latest verified updates
- The US 5-Year Treasury yield was last updated at 4.362% on August 7, 2026.
- Data is sourced from Yahoo Finance delayed market data, categorized as reported evidence.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-08-10