Covered Treasury Rate
US 5-Year Treasury Note
Treasury Note · 5 years
Current yield5.025%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^FVX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 5-Year Treasury Note technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Mixed trend: the latest level is above its 20-period average, without full long-term confirmation.
RSI is 83, a extended reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 4.381%. A break below 4.351% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 5.025%. A confirmed break above 5.025% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +18.0%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -1.3%, from a high-water mark of 4.408% to 4.351%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 5-Year Treasury Note yield is currently observed at 5.025%, according to reported market data as of September 24, 2026.
- The yield has demonstrated a consistent upward trajectory over the short-to-medium term, with a weekly increase of 22.4 basis points and a monthly rise of 67.4 basis points.
- Year-to-date, the 5-Year Treasury yield has expanded by 130.3 basis points, reflecting a significant repricing of the intermediate duration segment.
What changed
- The 5-Year Treasury yield rose by 2.8 basis points in the most recent daily session.
- The cumulative monthly increase of 67.4 basis points indicates a sustained sell-off in intermediate-term government debt over the last 30 days.
- The year-to-date change of 130.3 basis points highlights a broader trend of yield expansion throughout the 2026 calendar year.
Why it matters
- The rise in the 5-Year yield increases the cost of borrowing for intermediate-term corporate and consumer debt, which is often benchmarked against this maturity.
- Sustained yield expansion at the 5-year point of the curve may signal market expectations for higher terminal policy rates or a shift in inflation risk premiums.
- For investors, the rapid monthly increase of 67.4 basis points suggests heightened volatility in duration-sensitive portfolios and potential re-evaluation of fixed-income allocations.
Bullish rate drivers
- The ongoing upward trend in yields suggests that market participants are pricing in a higher interest rate environment, which may eventually attract yield-seeking capital if the rate of increase stabilizes.
- The significant year-to-date yield expansion provides a higher nominal return profile for new capital entering the 5-year segment compared to the start of the year.
Bearish rate drivers
- The rapid 67.4 basis point monthly increase indicates significant downward price pressure on existing 5-year Treasury holdings, resulting in capital losses for current bondholders.
- The consistent weekly and monthly yield expansion reflects a lack of demand at current price levels, suggesting that the market has not yet found a floor for intermediate-term debt.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and communications will be critical in determining whether the current yield trajectory persists or reverses.
- Official US Treasury auction results and issuance volumes will provide necessary data on market appetite for intermediate-term debt.
- Upcoming official releases regarding inflation, employment, and economic growth will serve as the primary drivers for adjusting rate expectations.
Key risks
- A continued rapid rise in yields could tighten financial conditions more aggressively than intended, potentially impacting broader economic growth.
- The current evidence lacks specific commentary on the drivers of this move, leaving uncertainty regarding whether the yield expansion is driven by growth expectations or inflation concerns.
- Market liquidity could be tested if the pace of yield volatility continues to accelerate, potentially leading to wider bid-ask spreads in the Treasury market.
Upcoming events
- Monitoring of Federal Reserve policy decisions and communications remains the primary framework for assessing future rate paths.
- Ongoing tracking of US Treasury auctions and issuance schedules is required to evaluate supply-side pressures on the 5-year note.
- Scheduled official inflation, employment, and growth releases will be integrated as they become available to provide context for the observed yield movements.
Latest verified updates
- The US 5-Year Treasury Note yield was last updated at 5.025% on September 24, 2026.
- Reported data indicates a daily change of 2.8 basis points and a weekly change of 22.4 basis points.
- The year-to-date yield change stands at 130.3 basis points, based on data retrieved from Yahoo Finance.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-09-24