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Covered Policy Rate

Federal Funds Effective Rate

Overnight Reference Rate · Overnight

Current rate3.630%
Current rate3.630%
Daily movement+0.0 bp
Weekly movement+0.0 bp
Monthly movement+1.0 bp
YTD movement-1.0 bp
Last updated2026-08-07

Classification: Policy rate

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)

Symbol: EFFR

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)

Historical chart

Federal Funds Effective Rate historical yield (%) 4.373%4.174%3.975%3.776%3.577%2025-08-042025-10-022025-12-052026-02-062026-04-082026-06-092026-08-07 Date Yield (%)
2025-08-04 to 2026-08-07 · Range 3.620% to 4.330%

AI-Assisted Chart Analysis

Federal Funds Effective Rate technical analysis

Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.

Technical only
Trend

Mixed trend: the latest level is above its 20-period average, without full long-term confirmation.

Momentum

RSI is 50, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.

Support scenario

The first technical watch zone is 3.620%. A break below 3.620% invalidates the near-term support setup.

Resistance scenario

The first resistance/watch zone is 3.630%. A confirmed break above 3.630% supports continuation.

Risk

Annualized realized volatility is +10.5%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -16.4%, from a high-water mark of 4.330% to 3.620%.

Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.

Current signal

  • The Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) is currently observed at 3.63% as of August 6, 2026.
  • The rate has remained static over the daily, weekly, and monthly observation windows, indicating a period of stability in the overnight lending market.
  • Evidence is limited to the official Federal Reserve Bank of New York data series, which provides a precise snapshot of the overnight reference rate without additional qualitative context.

What changed

  • There has been no movement in the EFFR over the past 30 days, maintaining the 3.63% level.
  • The year-to-date change reflects a marginal decline of 1.0 basis point, suggesting a lack of significant volatility in the overnight funding environment thus far in 2026.
  • The current observation confirms that the overnight rate has not deviated from its recent baseline, contrasting with potential expectations for more dynamic shifts in monetary policy implementation.

Why it matters

  • As the primary benchmark for overnight bank lending, the stability of the EFFR at 3.63% anchors short-term funding costs for financial institutions.
  • The lack of change in this rate suggests that liquidity conditions in the overnight market are currently balanced, with no immediate pressure from supply or demand imbalances.
  • For risk assets, a stable overnight rate provides a predictable cost-of-capital baseline, reducing uncertainty for short-duration financing strategies.

Bullish rate drivers

  • The stability of the EFFR at 3.63% indicates that the Federal Reserve's current policy stance is effectively anchoring the overnight market.
  • Consistent overnight rates reduce the risk of sudden liquidity crunches, which supports broader financial market stability.
  • The absence of upward pressure on the EFFR suggests that demand for overnight reserves is being met without necessitating higher borrowing costs.

Bearish rate drivers

  • The lack of movement in the EFFR may reflect a stagnant monetary policy environment that fails to address potential underlying economic shifts.
  • If the EFFR remains fixed while other market indicators suggest a need for adjustment, it could signal a disconnect between policy implementation and market realities.
  • A static rate environment may limit the ability of the Federal Reserve to signal future policy intentions through the overnight lending channel.

Key catalysts

  • Future Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding the target range for the federal funds rate will be the primary driver of future EFFR movements.
  • Changes in the volume of reserves held by depository institutions at the Federal Reserve could impact the EFFR.
  • Adjustments to the interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate, which acts as a ceiling for the EFFR, remain a critical monitorable for future rate shifts.

Key risks

  • Unexpected volatility in overnight funding markets could cause the EFFR to deviate from the Federal Reserve's target range.
  • A sudden shift in liquidity demand from financial institutions could pressure the EFFR upward, necessitating intervention.
  • The evidence packet lacks forward-looking guidance, meaning any sudden change in the macroeconomic environment could lead to rapid, unpredicted adjustments in the overnight rate.

Upcoming events

  • Future Federal Reserve monetary policy meetings are the primary scheduled events that could alter the target range for the federal funds rate.
  • Official releases regarding U.S. economic data, including inflation and employment reports, remain the key monitors for potential policy shifts.
  • Scheduled U.S. Treasury auctions and issuance updates may influence liquidity conditions, though their direct impact on the EFFR is secondary to Fed policy.

Latest verified updates

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports the EFFR at 3.63% as of August 6, 2026.
  • Official data confirms a 1.0 basis point decline in the EFFR on a year-to-date basis.
  • No new policy decisions or communications from the Federal Reserve were provided in this evidence window to explain the current rate level.

Sources

Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)

Last updated: 2026-08-07