Covered Policy Rate
Federal Funds Effective Rate
Overnight Reference Rate · Overnight
Current rate3.880%
Classification: Policy rate
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)
Symbol: EFFR
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
Federal Funds Effective Rate technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Mixed trend: the latest level is above its 20-period average, without full long-term confirmation.
RSI is 100, a extended reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 3.630%. A break below 3.620% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 3.880%. A confirmed break above 3.880% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +13.5%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -0.3%, from a high-water mark of 3.630% to 3.620%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) is currently observed at 3.88% as of September 23, 2026.
- The rate reflects a stable daily position with no change recorded in the most recent session.
- Evidence is sourced directly from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED, maintaining an official classification.
What changed
- The EFFR has increased by 25.0 basis points over the trailing one-week and one-month periods.
- Year-to-date, the rate has seen a net adjustment of approximately 24.0 basis points.
- The daily change remains flat at 0.0 basis points, indicating a pause in immediate volatility following the recent monthly climb.
Why it matters
- As the primary benchmark for overnight lending, the 3.88% rate directly influences the cost of capital for financial institutions and sets the floor for broader money market rates.
- The 25 basis point monthly increase signals a tightening of liquidity conditions, which typically exerts upward pressure on short-duration fixed-income yields.
- For consumers and businesses, this rate environment impacts the pricing of variable-rate debt products, including credit lines and floating-rate commercial loans.
Bullish rate drivers
- A higher EFFR supports net interest margins for commercial banks by increasing the spread on floating-rate assets.
- The upward trend in the rate suggests a policy environment aimed at managing liquidity or responding to macroeconomic conditions that may support currency strength.
- Stable overnight rates at this level provide a clearer benchmark for risk-free return calculations in short-term cash management strategies.
Bearish rate drivers
- Increased borrowing costs for financial institutions can constrain credit expansion, potentially slowing economic velocity.
- Higher overnight rates increase the debt-servicing burden for entities reliant on short-term wholesale funding markets.
- The recent 25 basis point rise may pressure equity valuations by increasing the discount rate applied to future cash flows.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve policy decisions and official communications regarding the target range for the federal funds rate.
- Official releases concerning inflation, employment, and economic growth metrics that influence the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) outlook.
- US Treasury auction results and issuance volumes which impact liquidity dynamics in the broader money markets.
Key risks
- Unexpected shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance could lead to rapid volatility in overnight lending markets.
- Liquidity constraints in the banking system could cause the effective rate to deviate from the FOMC's target range.
- Macroeconomic data surprises may force a reassessment of the path for future rate adjustments.
Upcoming events
- Monitoring of scheduled Federal Reserve policy meetings for updates to the target federal funds rate range.
- Tracking of upcoming US Treasury auctions to assess demand and potential impacts on short-term yield curves.
- Review of official Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis releases for data that may influence future monetary policy.
Latest verified updates
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York confirms the EFFR at 3.88% as of the September 23, 2026, update.
- No new policy decisions have been issued by the Federal Reserve since the most recent rate observation.
- Market data confirms a 25 basis point increase over the last 30 days, consistent with official FRED time-series reporting.
Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-09-23