Covered Policy Rate
Federal Funds Effective Rate
Overnight Reference Rate · Overnight
Current rate3.880%
Classification: Policy rate
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)
Symbol: EFFR
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
Federal Funds Effective Rate technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 50, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 3.880%. A break below 3.630% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 3.880%. A confirmed break above 3.880% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +163.1%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -33.3%, from a high-water mark of 0.090% to 0.060%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) is currently observed at 3.88% as of November 5, 2026, according to official Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.
- The rate has remained stable with no daily, weekly, or monthly change recorded in the most recent observation window.
- The current rate reflects a year-to-date increase of approximately 24 basis points.
What changed
- There has been no movement in the EFFR over the last 7-day evidence window, maintaining the 3.88% level.
- The rate has exhibited a consistent trajectory throughout the current monthly period, showing zero volatility in the immediate short term.
- The year-to-date change of 24 basis points indicates a gradual shift in the overnight lending environment compared to the start of the year.
Why it matters
- As the primary benchmark for overnight interbank lending, the stability of the EFFR at 3.88% provides a baseline for short-term liquidity costs across the financial system.
- The lack of recent movement suggests a period of policy consolidation or market equilibrium in the overnight funding markets.
- For investors, the current rate level serves as a critical anchor for pricing short-duration fixed-income instruments and floating-rate assets.
Bullish rate drivers
- A sustained or higher EFFR supports yield-seeking behavior in cash-equivalent instruments and money market funds.
- Stability in the overnight rate can reduce uncertainty for institutional lenders, potentially encouraging liquidity provision in the repo markets.
Bearish rate drivers
- The absence of rate movement may signal a lack of responsiveness to evolving macroeconomic conditions if inflation or growth metrics deviate from expectations.
- If market participants were pricing in a different trajectory, the current stagnation could lead to a repricing of expectations regarding future central bank policy.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve policy decisions and official communications regarding the target range for the federal funds rate.
- Official releases concerning inflation, employment, and economic growth that may influence the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) stance.
- Changes in US Treasury auction results and issuance volumes that impact overall liquidity and demand for short-term funding.
Key risks
- Unexpected shifts in liquidity conditions within the banking system could lead to volatility in the effective rate despite stable policy targets.
- Divergence between market-implied policy probabilities and actual Federal Reserve actions could create sudden repricing events in short-term rates.
Upcoming events
- Scheduled Federal Reserve policy meetings and subsequent press conferences remain the primary events for potential rate adjustments.
- Release of official economic data, including CPI, PCE, and non-farm payrolls, which serve as inputs for future monetary policy decisions.
Latest verified updates
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York confirmed the EFFR at 3.88% on November 5, 2026.
- No changes to the overnight reference rate have been reported by the Federal Reserve via FRED in the last 7 days.
Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-11-06