The Hedge Book logo The Hedge Book Read smarter. Invest better.

← Back to Commodities

Covered Commodity and Power Product

Copper

HG=F · Front-month continuous futures · USD per pound

Current futures price$6.35
Current price$6.35
Daily return+2.2%
Weekly return-2.9%
Monthly return-4.3%
YTD return+12.9%
Contract monthDec 26
Contract expirationUnavailable
Rollover statusProvider-managed front-month continuous series; exact rollover methodology not supplied
Contract seriesFront-month continuous futures
RegionGlobal
Price-feed statusDelayed market data enabled
UnitsUSD per pound
CurrencyUSD
ProviderYahoo Finance delayed futures data
Timestamp

Historical chart

Copper historical futures price 6.846.676.516.356.182026-08-102026-08-252026-09-092026-09-242026-10-092026-10-232026-11-09 Date Futures price
2026-08-10 to 2026-11-09 · Range 6.22 to 6.80

AI-Assisted Chart Analysis

Copper technical analysis

Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.

Technical only
Trend

Mixed trend: the latest level is below its 20-period average, without full long-term confirmation.

Momentum

RSI is 42, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.

Support scenario

The first technical watch zone is 6.22. A break below 6.22 invalidates the near-term support setup.

Resistance scenario

The first resistance/watch zone is 6.68. A confirmed break above 6.80 supports continuation.

Risk

Annualized realized volatility is +21.6%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -8.6%, from a high-water mark of 6.80 to 6.22.

Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.

Current signal

  • Copper futures are currently exhibiting volatility, with recent price action characterized by a retreat below the 200-day moving average as of early November 2026.
  • Market sentiment is currently mixed, with reports of price swings driven by shifting expectations regarding U.S. election outcomes and broader industrial demand concerns.
  • The available data indicates a lack of a clear directional trend, as the market balances supply-side investment announcements against concerns over potential demand-side headwinds.

What changed

  • Copper futures experienced a notable decline in early November 2026, falling below the 200-day moving average, according to official CME Group reporting.
  • Major mining entities, including Freeport-McMoRan, have announced significant capital expenditure plans, such as a $4.5 billion investment, signaling long-term supply expansion despite short-term price fluctuations.
  • The market has reacted to geopolitical and regulatory developments, including a mining fraud inquiry in the Democratic Republic of Congo and shifting trade policy expectations following U.S. election-related sentiment.

Why it matters

  • The breach of the 200-day moving average is a technical signal often monitored by institutional investors as a potential indicator of shifting momentum in industrial commodities.
  • Large-scale capital investments by major producers like Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto suggest that industry leaders are prioritizing long-term production capacity, which may influence future supply-demand balances.
  • Copper's sensitivity to U.S. election outcomes and Chinese market dynamics underscores its role as a proxy for global industrial activity and macroeconomic health.

Bullish factors

  • Major producers are committing to significant long-term capital projects, such as Freeport-McMoRan's $4.5 billion investment and Rio Tinto's $144 million project approval, indicating confidence in future demand.
  • Supply constraints remain a persistent theme, with reports of mining fraud inquiries and ongoing logistical challenges in key producing regions like the DRC.
  • Persistent industrial demand narratives, particularly regarding the energy transition and AI-related infrastructure, continue to support the long-term structural thesis for copper.

Bearish factors

  • Technical indicators have weakened, with futures falling below the 200-day moving average, which may trigger further selling pressure from trend-following algorithms.
  • Market sentiment has been dampened by concerns over potential U.S. trade policy shifts and broader macroeconomic uncertainty following recent election-related volatility.
  • There are reports of price weakness in base metals, with copper and tin experiencing declines alongside broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets.

Key catalysts

  • Future price direction may be influenced by the outcome of ongoing mining fraud inquiries in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could impact regional supply stability.
  • The implementation of announced capital expenditure projects by major miners will be a key monitorable for long-term supply growth.
  • Shifts in U.S. trade policy and potential changes to copper tariffs remain critical variables for market participants.

Key risks

  • Geopolitical instability in key mining jurisdictions, such as the DRC, poses a risk to consistent supply chains.
  • A sustained downturn in global industrial activity, particularly if linked to trade policy or macroeconomic cooling, could suppress demand.
  • Technical selling pressure could intensify if the price fails to reclaim key support levels, potentially leading to further downside volatility.

Upcoming reports

  • Market participants continue to monitor ongoing developments regarding the U.S. political landscape and its potential impact on trade and industrial policy.
  • Future earnings calls and operational updates from major copper producers will provide further insight into production guidance and cost structures.
  • Ongoing monitoring of global inventory levels and exchange-traded fund flows remains essential for gauging short-term market balance.

Latest verified updates

  • Freeport-McMoRan announced a $4.5 billion investment plan, as reported by multiple financial news outlets in early November 2026.
  • Rio Tinto approved a $144 million investment, highlighting continued capital allocation toward copper assets.
  • Official CME Group data confirmed copper futures fell below the 200-day moving average during the first week of November 2026.

Sources

Yahoo Finance delayed futures data

Last updated: