Covered Commodity and Power Product
US Midwest HRC Steel
HRC=F · Front-month continuous futures · USD per short ton
Current futures price$1,302.00
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US Midwest HRC Steel technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 96, a extended reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 1,203.00. A break below 1,154.00 invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 1,302.00. A confirmed break above 1,302.00 supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +13.6%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -2.8%, from a high-water mark of 823.00 to 800.00.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- US Midwest HRC Steel front-month futures are currently priced at 1302.0 USD per short ton, reflecting a significant single-session appreciation.
- The current price level represents a 5.25% increase over the most recent observation window, indicating strong immediate upward momentum.
- Available verified data is limited to price and percentage change metrics from the Yahoo Finance delayed futures feed, with no accompanying fundamental supply or demand data provided in this evidence set.
What changed
- The contract price rose by 65.0 USD per short ton in the latest session, marking a 5.25% gain.
- Year-to-date performance for the front-month continuous series stands at a 39.25% increase, highlighting a sustained trend of price appreciation throughout the current period.
- One-month performance metrics indicate an 8.86% rise, suggesting that the recent price action is part of a broader, multi-week upward trajectory.
Why it matters
- The sharp increase in HRC steel prices signals potential cost-push inflationary pressure for downstream industrial manufacturers and construction sectors reliant on steel inputs.
- Rising steel prices often correlate with increased input costs for automotive and appliance producers, which may necessitate margin adjustments or price pass-throughs to end consumers.
- As a key industrial commodity, the price movement serves as a proxy for manufacturing sentiment and demand expectations within the US Midwest industrial base, though specific causal drivers remain unconfirmed by current data.
Bullish factors
- The consistent positive performance across one-week, one-month, and year-to-date timeframes indicates robust buying interest and a strong trend-following environment.
- The magnitude of the single-session move (5.25%) suggests a potential breakout or a significant reaction to market conditions that warrants further investigation into mill-side supply constraints.
Bearish factors
- The lack of fundamental data regarding mill utilization rates or inventory levels prevents confirmation of whether this price move is supported by physical market tightness or speculative positioning.
- Rapid price appreciation of this scale can sometimes precede volatility or mean-reversion if the move is driven by short-term sentiment rather than structural supply-demand imbalances.
Key catalysts
- Market participants should monitor official CME Group contract updates and industry-specific supply reports for potential shifts in mill production schedules or trade policy impacts.
- Future price direction will likely depend on the sustainability of the current demand environment, which is not currently quantified in the available evidence.
Key risks
- The primary risk is the absence of fundamental supply-side data, which limits the ability to distinguish between a genuine physical shortage and speculative market noise.
- Rapid price volatility in steel futures can lead to increased margin requirements for market participants, potentially impacting liquidity in the front-month contract.
Upcoming reports
- No specific upcoming economic releases or industry events are identified in the current evidence set.
- Monitoring of CME Group market data remains the primary framework for tracking future price developments and contract rollover impacts.
Latest verified updates
- The front-month continuous series for US Midwest HRC Steel is currently quoted at 1302.0 USD per short ton per Yahoo Finance delayed futures data.
- Official contract specifications are maintained by the CME Group, which serves as the primary reference for the product's structure and regional focus.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed futures data
- CME GroupOfficialofficial futures contract and settlement context
- CFTCOfficialofficial positioning data
- EIAOfficialofficial U.S. energy inventories, supply, and demand
- OPECOfficialofficial oil-market publications
- IEAOfficialglobal energy demand and supply analysis
- LBMAOfficialprecious-metals benchmark and market data
- World Gold CouncilAnalyst Opiniongold demand, flows, and market structure
- USGSOfficialofficial mine supply and minerals data
- ICEOfficialofficial TTF gas and API2 coal contract specifications
- EEXOfficialofficial German and European power contract information
- PJM Data MinerOfficialofficial PJM load, LMP, constraint, and outage data
- ERCOTOfficialofficial ERCOT load, price, reserve, and generation data
- ENTSO-EOfficialofficial European load, generation, and cross-border power data
- GIE AGSIOfficialofficial European gas-storage observations
- World Nuclear AssociationReportednuclear fuel-cycle and uranium supply context
- Reuters CommoditiesReportedprofessional commodity-market reporting
- S&P Global Commodity InsightsAnalyst Opinionprofessional supply, demand, and price opinion
- ING THINK CommoditiesAnalyst Opinionprofessional commodity strategy opinion
- Public commodity discussionSocial Signalunverified commodity sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
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