Covered Commodity and Power Product
RBOB Gasoline
RB=F · Front-month continuous futures · USD per gallon
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
RBOB Gasoline technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Mixed trend: the latest level is below its 20-period average, without full long-term confirmation.
RSI is 52, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 3.10. A break below 2.84 invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 3.59. A confirmed break above 3.59 supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +40.0%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -60.7%, from a high-water mark of 4.28 to 1.68.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- RBOB Gasoline front-month futures are trading at 3.307 USD per gallon.
- The asset exhibits a sharp short-term downward price trajectory, contrasting with a strong year-to-date performance.
What changed
- The front-month contract experienced a decline of approximately 7.81% in the most recent session.
- One-week performance is down 5.72%, marking a reversal from the 1.65% gain observed over the trailing month.
- Despite recent volatility, the contract maintains a significant year-to-date gain of 93.90%.
Why it matters
- Gasoline price volatility directly influences consumer discretionary spending and headline inflation expectations.
- The rapid shift in price momentum suggests a potential adjustment in market sentiment regarding refined product supply and demand balances.
Bullish factors
- The year-to-date performance of 93.90% indicates a strong underlying trend that persists despite recent corrections.
- The asset retains a positive one-month return of 1.65%, suggesting that the broader trend remains intact above the recent sell-off.
Bearish factors
- The recent 7.81% single-session decline indicates a significant increase in selling pressure.
- The one-week performance of -5.72% confirms a negative short-term momentum shift.
Key catalysts
- Market participants monitor EIA petroleum status reports, which provide official data on inventories, implied demand, and refinery utilization.
- Changes in refinery utilization rates and seasonal demand specifications act as primary drivers for RBOB price discovery.
Key risks
- Refined product markets are susceptible to volatility stemming from unexpected shifts in refinery operations or supply-chain disruptions.
- The reliance on front-month continuous futures introduces rollover risk for investors maintaining long-term positions.
Upcoming reports
Market participants continue to monitor the EIA's weekly petroleum status reports for updates on inventories and refinery operations.
Latest verified updates
- CME Group provides official contract specifications, margin requirements, and calendar data for RBOB Gasoline futures.
- Morningstar reporting confirms recent settlement price volatility, noting a 1.64% decline in a prior session.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed futures data
- CME GroupOfficialofficial futures contract and settlement context
- CFTCOfficialofficial positioning data
- EIAOfficialofficial U.S. energy inventories, supply, and demand
- OPECOfficialofficial oil-market publications
- IEAOfficialglobal energy demand and supply analysis
- LBMAOfficialprecious-metals benchmark and market data
- World Gold CouncilAnalyst Opiniongold demand, flows, and market structure
- USGSOfficialofficial mine supply and minerals data
- ICEOfficialofficial TTF gas and API2 coal contract specifications
- EEXOfficialofficial German and European power contract information
- PJM Data MinerOfficialofficial PJM load, LMP, constraint, and outage data
- ERCOTOfficialofficial ERCOT load, price, reserve, and generation data
- ENTSO-EOfficialofficial European load, generation, and cross-border power data
- GIE AGSIOfficialofficial European gas-storage observations
- World Nuclear AssociationReportednuclear fuel-cycle and uranium supply context
- Reuters CommoditiesReportedprofessional commodity-market reporting
- S&P Global Commodity InsightsAnalyst Opinionprofessional supply, demand, and price opinion
- ING THINK CommoditiesAnalyst Opinionprofessional commodity strategy opinion
- Public commodity discussionSocial Signalunverified commodity sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
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